Analyzing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H. Moore

Interesting and informative reading for all students of economics and business and for anyone fascinated with the twists and turns of economic cycles in the business world.

This impressive book is a collection of essays written in honor of Geoffrey H. Moore, Director of Research at the Bureau of Economic Research, on the occasion of his 75th birthday. The essays represent a wide variety of subjects dealing with the vicissitudes of business cycles by a stellar group of economists who were influenced by Moore's analysis of business cycles. Many of the essays deal with specific types of forecasting problems; some consider ways in which indicators and indicator systems can be improved; and others illustrate how indicators and indicator systems can be applied to a representative group of theoretical and policy problems.

Philip A. Klein is Professor Emeritus of Economics; Senior Research Scholar - Economic Cycle Research Institute at Penn State University in State College, PA. He has been a professor at Penn State since 1955 and has published numerous articles, papers, and other publications. He received his Ph.D. in 1958 from the University of California, Berkeley.

	Charts	ix
	Tables	xiii
	Forewords
	Solomon Fabricant	xvii
	Gottfried Haberler	xxi
	Acknowledgments	xxiii

I. Introduction
1.	Geoffrey H. Moore and His Impact on Modern Business Cycle Research	3
	Philip A. Klein

2.	Plan of the Book	9
	Philip A. Klein

II. Analyzing Business Cycles Today
3.	Understanding Business Cycles Today: A Critical Review of Theory and Fact	25
	Ernst A. Boehm

III. Current Assessment of Cyclical Indicators
4.	Why Some of the Leading Indicators Lead	59
	Joel Popkin

5.	Business Cycle Surveys: A New Quality in Economic Statistics	69
	Werner H. Strigel

6.	The Leading Indicators and Monetary Aggregates	85
	Phillip Cagan

7.	Cyclical Indicators in Econometric Models	97
	Lawrence R. Klein

IV.	The Usefulness of Indicators in Economic Forecasting
8.	Forecasting Turning Points in the Stock Market Cycle and Asset Allocation Implications	109
	Michael P. Niemira

9.	The Future Lies Ahead	128
	Edgar R. Fiedler

10.	The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts	143
	Stephen K. McNees

V.	Cyclical Indicators and Their Applications: Current Methodological Issues
11.	Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes: Some Estimates of Their Interrelations	177
	Victor Zarnowitz and Phillip Braun

12.	A Reassessment of Composite Indexes	206
	Charlotte Boschan and Anirvan Banerji

13.	Long-Leading Index, 1919-1988	226
	Chantal Dubrin and Jean Maltz

VI.	Recent Business Cycle Research: Implications for Theory and Policy
14.	The Long-Run Efficacy of Efforts to Mitigate Downturns	231
	Alfred Malabre, Jr.

15.	Diminished Unit Labor Cost Pressures: Importance for Methusetah Expansion	238
	John P. Cullity

16.	The 1987 Stock Market Crash and the Wealth Effect	249
	Phillip Cagan

17.	Entrepreneurial Confidence and Money Illusion	261
	Philip A. Klein

18.	Cyclical Effects of International Transmission of Real and Monetary Disturbances	275
	Anna J. Schwarts and Michael D. Bordo

19.	What's Natural About Unemployment	293
	Philip A. Klein

	Index	303

	About the Contributors	323